Sunday, September 16, 2007

Beyond Einstein redux

You may recall a rather detailed discussion last November of NASA's Beyond Einstein program back here. In a nutshell, NASA was looking at a number of very interesting space missions related to astrophysics and cosmology. But because of the foolish emphasis being placed on manned missions to the moon and (eventually) Mars and the multi-billion-$ cost of such missions, it remained to be determined whether enough money would be left over for even a few of the science missions.

Among the proposed science missions, there were two that were well along in the planning stage – LISA (to detect and study gravitational waves), and Constellation-X (a powerful X-ray observatory to be used for studying black holes and hot gas in galaxy clusters).

In addition, there were three other projects less far along in planning: a dark energy probe, an inflation probe, and a black hole finder.

In order to prioritize and choose among these missions, the Powers That Be decided to ask the National Research Council to evaluate the various missions and report back. In April Steinn Sigurðsson at Dynamics of Cats provided an interim report on the occasion of a meeting of the committee given the assessment task.

On September 5 an answer came back from the NRC:

'Beyond Einstein' Research Should Begin with Mission to Study Dark Energy
NASA and the U.S. Department of Energy should pursue the Joint Dark Energy Mission (JDEM) as the first mission in the "Beyond Einstein" program, according to a new report from the National Research Council. Beyond Einstein is NASA's research roadmap for five proposed mission areas to study the most compelling questions at the intersection of physics and astronomy. The committee that wrote the report added that another proposed mission to detect gravitational waves using the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) should eventually become the flagship mission of Beyond Einstein, given that it is likely to provide an entirely new way to observe the universe. However, LISA needs more testing before a launch can be planned, whereas the Joint Dark Energy Mission is ready now for a competitive selection of mission concept proposals.

So it appears that LISA and JDEM are at least still getting serious consideration for eventual mission funding. But don't forget that this is merely a recommendation to NASA and the Department of Energy (the agencies that must actually fund the projects). The projects could easily be blocked or delayed by the agencies themselves, the Executive Office of the President (especially by budget officials), or Congress.

Note that JDEM, the dark energy mission, is actually three competing proposals, among which it will still be necessary to settle on one:
So far, three specific mission plans have been studied in this area: the Supernova Acceleration Probe (SNAP), the Dark Energy Space Telescope (DESTINY), and the Advanced Dark Energy Physics Telescope (ADEPT), but the eventual JDEM could be any one of the three or be based on a different option altogether. The committee found that the underlying technology for a dark energy mission is, for the most part, in the prototype phase, and will require less development than most of the other missions. The potential gains for JDEM also outweigh its scientific risks, such as the possibility that the mission may not provide substantial insight beyond that provided by telescopes on the ground. The report recommends that NASA and DOE proceed immediately with a competition for mission proposals that will investigate the nature of dark energy with high precision.

LISA is also recommended for continued development. It's status is somewhat different in that the project is being funded jointly between NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). And further, future plans depend on what is learned about the technology (an ambitions space-based interferometer) from a preliminary project called LISA Pathfinder, which is to be launched in 2009.

The NRC recommendation leaves the three remaining projects in limbo:
[T]he three elements of Beyond Einstein that are not being recommended for immediate implementation are still important endeavors that should receive continued support. The committee found that because the Constellation-X mission is a general-purpose x-ray observatory capable of broad contributions to astrophysics, it should be funded and assessed in a broader context than the Beyond Einstein program. The Black Hole Finder Probe and Inflation Probe missions will also make important scientific contributions; however, because of scope and technical readiness issues, they fell behind JDEM and LISA. The committee recommended that Constellation-X, Black Hole Finder Probe, and Inflation Probe receive continued support to prepare them for the next decadal survey of astronomy and astrophysics.

Additional news reports have focused mainly on the dark energy mission, for example here, here, here.

Steinn, of course, has some enlightening commentary here, here, and especially here.

The next shoe to drop is a reply from NASA, which could come at any time. It should be noted that there are possible ways and means to squeeze in some of the scientific missions which did not get recommended at this time, but that will require continued lobbying and can only be speculated on now. And everything goes up for grabs again, after January 20, 2009. One step at a time.

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Saturday, May 19, 2007

The $13,000 bottle of water

Would you pay $13,000 for an 8oz. bottle of water? Even very good water?

Well, guess what, American taxpayers will pay that much, if NASA and its current masters have their way.

At least, according to Gregg Easterbook, writing in the latest (June 2007) issue of Wired, that's what former astronaut and Republican senator Harrison Schmitt estimated, at the rate of $26,000 per pound of payload delivered to the moon's surface. (Well, to be fair, it might be only half that if launch vehicle efficiency is improved.)

What's the point? Simply that the current NASA plans for a manned base on the moon could be an extravagant boondoggle at least a whole order of magnitude more expensive than its previous boondoggle, the International Space Station. Where, as Easterbook puts it, the main work of Space Station astronauts is taking each others' blood pressure.

Easterbook leads off his Wired article with a proposed list of rational priorities for NASA:

  1. Conduct research, particularly environmental research, on Earth, the sun, and Venus, the most Earthlike planet.
  2. Locate asteroids and comets that might strike Earth, and devise a practical means of deflecting them.
  3. Increase humanity's store of knowledge by studying the distant universe.
  4. Figure out a way to replace today's chemical rockets with a much cheaper way to reach Earth orbit.


This is in contrast to what Easterbook takes to be NASA's actual priorities at this time:

  1. Maintain a pointless space station.
  2. Build a pointless Motel 6 on the moon.
  3. Increase humanity's store of knowledge by studying the distant universe.
  4. Keep money flowing to favored aerospace contractors and Congressional districts.


Hey, maybe one right answer out of four's not so bad...

Easterbook's Wired article doesn't seem to be online yet, but an earlier one on the same general topic is here.

I don't entirely agree with everything Easterbook writes. For instance, in that earlier article, he disses NASA's Webb Space Telescope project, while speaking approvingly of the Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF). I happen to think that both projects are about equally worthy. Neither will directly affect our daily lives, but they will both importantly contribute to "humanity's store of knowledge".

Indeed, it was the TPF which started me thinking about these issues tonight, because I was rereading news articles about the recent discovery of the first potentially habitable Earthlike planet, orbiting the star Gliese 581. (For example, see here, here, or here.)

And especially I noted this: Search for Life Gets Serious. You see, the Earthlike planet at Gliese 581 was not discovered by American scientists using American instruments, but rather by Europeans, in particular a team of Swiss, French, and Portuguese, using the land based European Southern Observatory. The article just cited winds up with this observation:
The daily Tribune de Geneve also praised the scientists, but couldn't help taking a shot at the world's traditional leaders in the study of the cosmos-- the United States.

"American scientists recently estimated that the discovery of an exoplanet resembling the Earth would probably take 20 years," it wrote. "The Europeans didn't wait for them."

Mayor predicted that NASA's Terrestrial Planet Finder and the European Space Agency's Darwin satellite would make increasingly significant contributions in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

That may be unfair. I can't recall offhand what American scientists allegedly made the indicated prediction, but obviously it was much too conservative.

Nevertheless, the race is on to discover Earthlike extrasolar planets, and eventually to detect signs of some sort of life on them. Already, a European-led space mission named COROT (see here, here) has detected its first extrasolar planet. In this case, the planet is a "hot Jupiter" that is not Earthlike. But COROT, which uses the "transit" method for detecting exoplanets, is expected to be able to detect smaller, rocky, Earthlike planets.

A much more ambitious European project, appropriately named DARWIN, and planned for launch about 2015 (only 8 years away), will be capable of detecting signs of life on Earthlike planets.

So what do NASA and the US have planned? First off, there is the Kepler Mission, planned for launch in 2008. It is designed to detect Earthlike planets, using a 1 meter telescope. Like COROT, it relies on the transit method for identifying exoplanets.

But beyond that, NASA plans are at present "up in the air". The follow-on to Kepler is named the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM). It was originally planned for launch in 2009, but according to its web page "The SIM PlanetQuest project schedule is currently under revision. An updated schedule will be published here when it becomes available." In other words, it's on indefinite hold. If/when SIM is launched, finding Earthlike planets is only part of its objective (being limited in this case to a search of about the 250 closest stars).

And beyond that is the Terrestrial Planet Finder. It is designed to detect both Earthlike planets as well as signs of life. Originally, like DARWIN, it was planned for launch around 2015. Unfortunately, like SIM, the project is currently on indefinite hold – while NASA fumbles around trying to figure out how, or why, to spend $13,000 to transport an 8 oz. bottle of water to the moon. And a few hotshot space jocks to fly along, so there will be someone there to drink the water.

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Monday, November 13, 2006

Beyond Einstein

Here's the second article in a series I'm going to do on NASA's advanced astrophysics and cosmology science program, which they've called "Beyond Einstein". The first in the series is here. It provides background on the Bush administration's lamentable intentions to delay indefinitely or even abandon most of the more advanced of NASA's pure science programs, including Beyond Einstein.

My purpose in writing about this is to stimulate interest in the program among that part of the U. S. public that pays attention to basic science, especially advanced studies of the universe at large. Because, you see, as a result of last week's elections, the character of the U. S. Congress is going to change significantly next year. There's reason to hope priorities can change. When NASA's science budgets are discussed in future years, we can advocate that Congress reinstate funds for the missions that make up the Beyond Einstein program.

The main purpose of this post is to present background information on the program. But of course, a few words need to be said first about what the Beyond Einstein program is. Fortunately, NASA's home page of the project does a really great job of providing both an overview and detailed background information. See especially the science page, the mission descriptions, and additional resources.

In a nutshell, the various missions together and separately will investigate four of the most mysterious phenomena that we know of in the universe: black holes, gravitational waves, dark energy, and cosmic inflation. These phenomena are grounded in Einstein's general theory of relativity. Yet there's a great deal we don't understand about each one – hence the name "Beyond Einstein".

This graphic from the project site sums it up (click for full-size image):



If you go to this page, you'll be able to click on individual parts of the graphic for more information. The items at the far left are space missions that have already been launched (except for GLAST, whose launch is scheduled for late 2007) or ground-based facilities (LIGO) that are currently working on different parts of the puzzle. Immediately to the right of those are two missions (LISA and Constellation-X) that are well-along in planning – but not yet approved and funded. They (as well as everything else to their right) are missions that were ditched, at least for the present, in NASA's 2007 budget.

LISA will use interferometry techniques, as does LIGO, to search for gravitational waves. But because the separation of the three observation points will be millions of kilometers, instead of a few thousand in LIGO, it will be vastly more sensitive. LISA should be able to detect gravitational waves resulting from supernovae or black hole collisions.

Constellation-X is to consist of four X-ray telescopes on a single spacecraft. It is a successor to previous space-based X-ray observatories, such as Chandra. Constellation-X will be able to study phenomena that are energetic in the X-ray part of the spectrum, such as physics in the vicinity of black holes and very hot gas found in large galaxy clusters.

The missions in the center of the chart are less far along in planning. Of the three, the dark energy probe appears to be farthest along. In fact, there are actually three possible designs in competition. In August, NASA authorized a comparative analysis of the three designs in order to identify the "best". Each of them will measure the effects of dark energy over the history of the universe by locating and studying 1000 or more Type 1a supernovae. They differ in the additional kinds of measurements they can make. However, the status of this mission (as well as the others discussed here) has recently been thrown into further uncertainty, as we'll explain in a minute.

The purpose of the inflation probe is to gather stronger evidence for the process of inflation that appears to have occurred beginning a mere 10-35 seconds after the big bang. (As discussed here and here, back in March NASA announced that an analysis of WMAP data in fact gave preliminary evidence for inflation.) In addition, the probe will seek data that can discriminate among the many possible models which can describe inflation. There are different ways that the probe can study the problem, including a more detailed analysis of polarization in the cosmic microwave background, and a study of the evolution of large-scale structure in the universe.

The black hole finder, as the name implies, will be designed to locate and study black holes (both stellar-mass supernova remnants and supermassive black holes) in order to learn more about how they form and grow. As such, it will build upon work done by Constellation-X.

As for the two "vision missions", it's really too early for scientists and engineers to define them in any detail. Much will depend on phenomena that are better understood from the results of earlier missions, and most likely phenomena we don't even know of yet. Understandably, these missions (and certainly others like them) are decades in the future.

And this brings us to the latest news. It should be clear enough that there are plenty of overlaps and interdependencies among the various missions. The capabilities of later missions will depend critically on what we learn from earlier ones. After all, until 1997, no one seriously suspected that dark energy even existed. (And some experts still doubt its existence.)

Because of this, as well as because of the severe present constraints on NASA's science budget, The National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies has formed a committee – at the request of NASA and the U. S. Department of Energy – to conduct an assessment of the Beyond Einstein program. The first meeting of the committee was held last week (November 6-8). The agenda is here. Further information on the committee, including its membership and staff, is here.

This is the committee's task statement:
1. Assess the five proposed Beyond Einstein missions (Constellation-X, Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, Joint Dark Energy Mission, Inflation Probe, and Black Hole Finder probe) and recommend which of these five should be developed and launched first, using a funding wedge that is expected to begin in FY 2009. The criteria for these assessments include:

a. Potential scientific impact within the context of other existing and planned space-based and ground-based missions; and

b. Realism of preliminary technology and management plans, and cost estimates.

2. Assess the Beyond Einstein missions sufficiently so that they can act as input for any future decisions by NASA or the next Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey on the ordering of the remaining missions. This second task element will assist NASA in its investment strategy for future technology development within the Beyond Einstein Program prior to the results of the Decadal Survey.

As of right now, I haven't seen any accounts of what happened at the meeting last week. If anyone out there has some actual information about the meeting, or has seen reports of it, please let me know.

What I do know is that some people are pretty worried that the real purpose of this committee is to narrow down the Beyond Einstein program to just one mission, or possibly two, because of NASA's budget problems. This might entail not merely postponing other missions, but essentially killing them altogether. The problem is that, if some level of misson activity cannot be funded on an ongoing basis, then many researchers and their institutions will have to find other things to do, and it could be very difficult to bring teams back together when, or if, funding becomes available. See two posts here and here, from Steinn Sigurðsson for examples of the kind of speculation going around.

Oh yes, there is one other thing. Along with the announcement on October 31 (before the NRC committee meeting), that a final service mission will be flown for the Hubble Space Telescope, there were strong hints that other astronomy missions are on hold. The report on this printed in Science: Hubble Gets a Green Light, With Other Missions on Hold is available only to subscribers, but says at the end:
Griffin's decision means that NASA will spend most of its astronomy budget on three major missions--the Hubble servicing flight, construction of the James Webb Space Telescope, and the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA). Technical troubles, schedule delays, and cost overruns plague the latter two. But Weiler [director of NASA's Goddard facility] says that the Webb is back on track after a rough couple of years, while SOFIA--which Griffin initially canceled only to revive in July--is slated to begin operations in 2009. Those large projects leave little room for smaller or future missions. For example, NASA halted work earlier this year on the extrasolar planet-seeking Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) in order to cover SOFIA's cost overruns. Those pressures worry some astronomers, who fear that the three missions will limit new efforts.

"Is the astronomy program with just [Webb], Hubble, and SOFIA a good astronomy program? You betcha," says Weiler. Although he acknowledges that there is a gap in smaller missions for the next few years, he notes that the cost of building the Webb will peak in 2008 and then decline over the next 5 years. "The big issue now is what to do with that wedge."

The four leading contenders appear to be the Joint Dark Energy Mission with the Energy Department, a mission called Constellation-X that features a bevy of x-ray telescopes, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna to study black holes and the early universe, and SIM. NASA had intended to fund all in this decade and the next, but budget constraints likely will make for a competitive race.

Make of that what you will, but it certainly doesn't sound too good.

On the other hand, it certainly looks like the task of the NRC committee is to select at least one of the Beyond Einstein missions. Further, NASA is going ahead with other new astronomy projects. In addition to GLAST (launches late 2007), on October 13 there was an announcement that the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer will be launched in 2009 to do infrared sky maps, which would capture both nearby planetary systems undergoing formation as well as very distant galaxies – news report, further information.

So here's the bottom line I see for now: The NRC committee will take a year or so to ponder the situation. They may pick one project to go forward with initially. (Betting seems to be on the dark energy probe, because of the involvement of the Department of Energy.) Other missions in the advanced planning stage (LISA and Constellation-X) may wind up on hold, or one may be slotted as well.

The important point: there is plenty of time to make the argument before the appropriate Congressional committees that the NASA science budget should be increased enough so that the Beyond Einstein program can go forward, without having to sacrifice planning that has already been done and disrupting teams that are already in place.

Fortunately, as a result of last week's elections, Congress will have new people in charge who should be inclined to place a higher value on basic science than those they are replacing.

Update 1 (11/13/06): According to a comment by Steinn, LISA and Con-X have been "approved", but only minimally funded.

Update 2 (11/14/06): Now Steinn says funding was cut off. In any case, they're going noplace fast at this point.

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Additional information:

Beyond Einstein: From the Big Bang to Black Holes
This is a 110 page document you can download in PDF format, and it's very much worth the effort. It's profusely illustrated (full color) and describes all of the missions and gives a good overview of the underlying science. Only problem is it was published in January 2003. But the additional science that has been learned in the last four years mostly confirms the premises of the program.


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Saturday, November 11, 2006

NASA 2007 science budget

This is old news. The main purpose of this post is to provide historical references for something I'm going to write more about, and to give a general flavor of the controversy over NASA's science budget.

On February 6, 2006 the Bush administration delivered NASA's 2007 budget to Congress – and there were substantial cuts in the science programs. I wrote a little about that here, as part of a general discussion of a variety of NASA problems at the time. (See the section on "NASA's 2007 budget".)

You most likely don't want to plow through all these articles, so I'll just summarize. Some of the science missions that were cut back or eliminated from the budget included probes to Mars and Jupiter's moon Europa, and a telescope to search for Earth-like extrasolar planets (Terrestrial Planet Finder).

Two other missions, which I will write more about, involved advanced astrophysics: the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna to search for gravitational waves and Constellation-X to study black holes.


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Friday, February 17, 2006

Headaches at NASA

It has not been a good couple of weeks for NASA. Things are not going well there. Not well at all. You've probably read about some of the recent problems in the news, but there have been so many, it's hard to keep them all straight.

A few months ago, it was possible to look forward to great things from NASA's scientific research program. Now the outlook is much bleaker.

Let's take the most recent bad news -- such as interference with and censorship of contacts between NASA scientists and the outside world -- first and work backwards.

On Thursday the New York Times ran a story detailing additional incidents of poltical pressure to restrict or alter disclosure of scientific information by NASA scientists: Call for Openness at NASA Adds to Reports of Pressure.
Top political appointees in the NASA press office exerted strong pressure during the 2004 presidential campaign to cut the flow of news releases on glaciers, climate, pollution and other earth sciences, public affairs officers at the agency say.

The disclosure comes nearly two weeks after the NASA administrator, Michael D. Griffin, called for "scientific openness" at the agency. In response to that, researchers and public affairs workers at the agency have described in fresh detail how political appointees altered or limited news releases on scientific findings that could have conflicted with administration policies.


We'll revisit a little later some of the earlier reporting about this topic. But there are a couple of interesting points to take special note of. First, the political watchdogs monitoring NASA's public relations are especially keen to enforce approved terminology. Recall how it quickly became verboten last year to refer to the Administration's proposed "personal" Social Security accounts as "private" accounts. Likewise, the Administration has a strict policy about how global warming can be described:
In a more recent example of possible political pressure at the agency, press officers and scientists cited an e-mail message sent last July from NASA's headquarters to its Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. It said a Web presentation describing the uncontroversial finding that Earth was a "warming planet" could not use the phrase "global warming." It is "standard practice," the message went on, to use the phrase "climate change."

The second observation is that the Administration -- and its Congressional supporters -- has a standard talking point that addresses allegations of political interference with science:
"The issue is where does science end and policy begin," said David Goldston, chief of staff to Representative Sherwood Boehlert, chairman of the House Science Committee.

This talking point goes back at least to the time of the statement in early 2004 of the Union of Concerned Scientists regarding Restoring Scientific Integrity in Policymaking. Immediately after that statement came out, the president's science adviser, John Marburger, started making the rounds to inform everyone who would listen that the Administration, of course, had no problem with scientists talking about science. They simply should not talk about science as it relates to public policy, or vice versa, because so many other factors in addition to scientific facts affect public policy. (For instance, the need of oil companies to make huge profits.)

OK, fine. But clearly the Administation wants to go far beyond a legitimate distinction between scientific facts and public policy. Otherwise, why insist on using the hazy term "climate change" instead of the very factual and accurate "global warming"?

To his credit, Griffin seems to be doing the right things, according to the Washington Post on Friday: NASA to Draft New Rules for Media Office:
NASA Administrator Michael D. Griffin said yesterday he has convened a team of scientists and public information officials to draft new guidelines to ensure that news of agency research or events will not be tailored or curtailed to reflect political or ideological bias.


NASA's 2007 budget

And right in the middle of this guerrilla warfare between NASA scientists and the political PR flacks, the Administration's 2007 budget proposal for NASA was announced on February 6.

The Planetary Society, which is certainly not a disinterested observer, but does strongly support both manned and unmanned space exploration and science missions, described the 2007 budget as follows: NASA 2007 Budget: Science Not Just Cut -- It Was Eviscerated. The Society's Executive Director Louis Friedman bluntly explained the problem: "As one Washington official put it, 'Science and exploration have to pay the bill for the shuttle.'"

A further public statement elaborates on criticism of placing funding for the Shuttle ahead of everything else:
Full funding of the shuttle was the result of political pressure from Congressional representatives from areas with vested interests in shuttle work, as well as international pressure from partners focused on completing the space station.

Friedman questioned the realism of the shuttle's even being able to do 17 more flights in any reasonable time period (before 2010) and said, "Investing in the shuttle is an investment in the past. NASA should be investing in the future."

I'll come back to the Shuttle issue at the end of this article.

While The Planetary Society can fairly be regarded as a "special interest group", members of Congress -- even Republicans -- are also quite upset with the NASA budget, as came out in a hearing before the House Science Committee on Thursday: Congress Criticizes NASA Budget Request
The House Science Committee’s Republican chairman and senior Democrat told NASA Administrator Mike Griffin they had little interest in accelerating the U.S. space agency’s exploration plans at the expense of science and research.

Republican committee chairman Boehlert further stated
“I am extremely uneasy about this budget, and I am in a quandary at this point about what to do about it,” [Sherwood] Boehlert told [NASA Administrator Mike] Griffin. “This budget is bad for space science, worse for Earth science, perhaps worse still for aeronautics. It basically cuts or de-emphasizes every forward looking, truly futuristic program of the agency to fund operational and development programs to enable us to do what we are already doing or have done before.”

How convenient that Earth science -- a lot of which involves studies of global warming... oops, climate change -- will be cut way back! Didn't Bush once or twice say that we couldn't be sure about global warming without more studies?

A very good New Scientist article from February 7 echoes the same themes: NASA to divert cash from science into shuttle. It lists some of the key scientific programs that would be delayed indefinitely or simply canceled. Two of these are designed to search for extrasolar planets and would tell us much about the existence of other planets like ours around other stars. These are the Space Inteferometry Mission (delayed at least three years) and the Terrestrial Planet Finder (delayed indefinitely). Two other missions, proposed to be delayed indefinitely, had been designed to study profound questions of cosmology -- the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, to search gravitational waves predicted by Einstein's general theory of relativity, and Constellation-X, to study black holes.

And that's not the end of the list of programs to be cut or delayed. Also on the chopping block are several robotic missions to Mars (the Mars Sample Return Mission and the Mars Telecommunications Orbiter), and a mission to Jupiter's moon Europa, considered by many planetary scientists to be the most likely place in the solar system besides the Earth to harbor some form of life.

FBI investigation of NASA's Inspector General

Continuing back in time a few more days to February 3, the Washington Post ran this rather alarming story: NASA's Inspector General Probed
An FBI-led watchdog agency has opened an investigation into multiple complaints accusing NASA Inspector General Robert W. Cobb of failing to investigate safety violations and retaliating against whistle-blowers. Most of the complaints were filed by current and former employees of his own office.

Written complaints and supporting documents from at least 16 people have been given to investigators. They allege that Cobb, appointed by President Bush in 2002, suppressed investigations of wrongdoing within NASA, and abused and penalized his own investigators when they persisted in raising concerns.

The complaints are being reviewed by the Integrity Committee of the President's Council on Integrity and Efficiency. The complaints describe efforts by Cobb to shut down or ignore investigations on issues such as a malfunctioning self-destruct procedure during a space shuttle launch at the Kennedy Space Center, and the theft of an estimated $1.9 billion worth of data on rocket engines from NASA computers.

In documents obtained by The Washington Post and in interviews, NASA employees and former employees said Cobb's actions had contributed to a lack of attention to safety problems at NASA.

The petitioners also said Cobb had disregarded the inspector general's mandate to root out "waste, fraud and abuse" and caused dozens of longtime NASA employees to leave the IG's 200-person office and seek investigative work elsewhere.

What's this? NASA's own inspector general being investigated for malfeasance? Rather incredibly, I haven't seen any further reference or follow-up on this story. I'd surely like to hear more about this!

Among other revelations in this article we find:
Cobb, a 1986 graduate of George Washington University's law school, became NASA's inspector general on April 22, 2002, after working for a year as an ethics lawyer in the office of the White House General Counsel.

Under the Inspector General Act of 1978, the president appoints independent officials to monitor Cabinet departments and larger federal agencies through audits and investigations. Cobb is among four of 11 inspectors general appointed by Bush who previously worked in the White House, and one of nine with no audit experience.

Uh huh. Cobb is a former White House employee appointed as an agency inspector general -- one of nine out of eleven people Bush appointed to such a position without any audit experience. Another Michael Brown. Is anyone surprised?

Political censorship of scientific information

On January 29, the New York Times reported that NASA's top climate scientist, James Hansen, claimed he was being censored by political public relations appointees within NASA: Climate Expert Says NASA Tried to Silence Him. It was this claim that led to the reports of additional scientific censorship discussed at the beginning of this article.

The Hansen story has been extensively reported on, so I'll try to be brief here. As usual, Administration flacks claim that all they want is to avoid the appearance that scientists are speaking for the government when they discuss issues of public policy. But scientific facts inevitably have implications for public policy, so the two cannot be separated as neatly as the flacks would like. However, Hansen responds that this restrictive policy
prevented the public from fully grasping recent findings about climate change that point to risks ahead.

"Communicating with the public seems to be essential," he said, "because public concern is probably the only thing capable of overcoming the special interests that have obfuscated the topic."

Clearly, Hansen isn't neutral about public policy implications of the scientific facts. Although his opinions certainly should not be taken as the official government position, the public interest equally certainly requires that top scientists be allowed to inform the public about scientific facts -- even if these scientists happen to be employed by the government. Here's a New Scientist article on the same story: Top climatologist accuses US of trying to gag him.

Less than a week later, on February 4, NASA administrator Michael Griffin came out strongly in support of his scientists: NASA Chief Backs Agency Openness
A week after NASA's top climate scientist complained that the space agency's public-affairs office was trying to silence his statements on global warming, the agency's administrator, Michael D. Griffin, issued a sharply worded statement yesterday calling for "scientific openness" throughout the agency.

"It is not the job of public-affairs officers," Dr. Griffin wrote in an e-mail message to the agency's 19,000 employees, "to alter, filter or adjust engineering or scientific material produced by NASA's technical staff."

All well and good. But a bit further on in the article was this little tidbit:
In October, for example, George Deutsch, a presidential appointee in NASA headquarters, told a Web designer working for the agency to add the word "theory" after every mention of the Big Bang, according to an e-mail message from Mr. Deutsch that another NASA employee forwarded to The Times.

Hmmmm. A presidential appointee is trying to tamper with scientific documentation in order to advance a religious agenda. How on Earth does that have anything to do with keeping scientists away from meddling with public policy? Might government biologists next be censored when discussing evolution? Yup, could be!

It turns out that this Deutsch guy was also involved with asserting more control over Hansen's public statements:
The Big Bang memo came from Mr. Deutsch, a 24-year-old presidential appointee in the press office at NASA headquarters whose résumé says he was an intern in the "war room" of the 2004 Bush-Cheney re-election campaign. A 2003 journalism graduate of Texas A&M, he was also the public-affairs officer who sought more control over Dr. Hansen's public statements.

In October 2005, Mr. Deutsch sent an e-mail message to Flint Wild, a NASA contractor working on a set of Web presentations about Einstein for middle-school students. The message said the word "theory" needed to be added after every mention of the Big Bang.

The Big Bang is "not proven fact; it is opinion," Mr. Deutsch wrote, adding, "It is not NASA's place, nor should it be to make a declaration such as this about the existence of the universe that discounts intelligent design by a creator."

It continued: "This is more than a science issue, it is a religious issue. And I would hate to think that young people would only be getting one-half of this debate from NASA. That would mean we had failed to properly educate the very people who rely on us for factual information the most."

This produced quite a strong and immediate reaction from the blogosphere, such as this from AMERICAblog: 24 year old Bush political appointee tells NASA to push "intelligent design by a creator". (Very worth reading, as it expands on the global warming issue.)

But the best was yet to come. Blogger Nick Anthis at The Scientific Activist, himself a graduate of Texas A&M (as Deutsch claimed to be), on February 6 revealed that George Deutsch Did Not Graduate From Texas A & M University! So, not only was this Deutsch unqualified for his job, like so many of the Administration's political appointees, he was also mendacious -- like so many of the Administration's political appointees.

Two days later, Deutsch resigned. See here, here, here. Read 'em and weep.

But the scientific censorship story is far from finished (unfortunately). And James Hansen is not letting go of it: Censorship Is Alleged at NOAA (2/11/06)
James E. Hansen, the NASA climate scientist who sparked an uproar last month by accusing the Bush administration of keeping scientific information from reaching the public, said Friday that officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are also muzzling researchers who study global warming.


Russia may beat NASA to the Moon

Let's get on to other problems at NASA. Recall George Bush's grand vision for space exploration -- you know, the one which calls for Americans to return to the Moon by 2020, which Bush grandiosely proposed in his 2005 State of the Union address, which has been such a disaster for NASA's budget, and which wasn't even mentioned in the 2006 State of the Union. Yeah, that grand vision.

Now, it's 2006, so we're not talking about any breakneck crash program. 2020 is fourteen years away. Recall that JFK proposed the first American program to plant our flag on the Moon in 1961. Merely eight years later, in 1969, we were there. But now it's going to take us fourteen years to do the same thing? Even though we designed, built, tested, and flew the whole damn project once already! What happened? Did someone lose the engineering plans, and NASA has to do the whole thing over again from scratch using modern computers? Oh, right. The computers probably run Microsoft Windows. Or maybe Bush plans to put Michael Brown in charge of the project. Nevermind. Forget I even asked.

But here's the really bad news. Russia may already be on the Moon in 2020, waiting for us when we get there: Russia plans mine on the moon by 2020.

Take that with a big grain of salt. But it sure would be funny if it turned out that way, wouldn't it?

The Space Shuttle and the International Space Station

Let's finish up with a few words about the Space Shuttle program, which crashed and burned in the Columbia disaster just over three years ago. The more than $6 billion a year that goes into that program, even though the whole thing will be mothballed in 2010, seems to be sucking all the air out of NASA's budget, so it has to be regarded as a major part of NASA's malaise.

Since that disaster in early 2003, NASA has been able to fly a Shuttle only once, in July 2005. It was discovered that the problem with dangerous shedding of foam insulation that doomed Columbia was still not fixed. The next attempt to get things right is scheduled, at this time, for May. NASA is hoping to pull off at least 17 more Shuttle flights before the program is ended in 2010.

In 2010, the Shuttle program will have been in existence for almost 40 years, not counting preliminary studies. Almost 30 years will have passed since the first orbital flight. Although it's no surprise that the Shuttle will then be considered obsolete and unsuitable for further use, hardly any planning or preparations for a replacement have been done until recently. No one will be surprised if a replacement isn't ready in 2012 or so, as currently planned.

But then, the only mission for the Shuttle or a similar vehicle in this time frame (except, prehaps, one final servicing mission for the Hubble Space Telescope) is completion of the International Space Station (ISS). NASA found that most other missions originally foreseen for the Shuttle, such as launches of satellites and space probes, could be done more cost-effectively and reliably with conventional unmanned vehicles.

As for the Space Station itself, if and when it is completed in 2010, its scientific value remains at least as questionable as it has always been. At present, almost no scientific work is being done on the ISS, because the two-person crew has little time to do anything beyond necessary maintenance. Whether much of anything useful is done once the ISS is completed remains to be seen.

Of course, this whole boondoggle isn't mostly NASA's fault. From the beginning, the main purpose of the ISS has been other than science. The purpose, in part, has been to justify continued funding of the Shuttle, which by 2010 will have consumed about $175 billion. And in turn, the main (though never officially acknowledged) reason for continued funding of the Shuttle has been a combination of (1) furthering the military's desire to ensure its control of near-Earth space, (2) furthering the goal of NASA, the military, and their contractors to keep their spacecraft engineering teams employed, and (3) keeping that stream of funds flowing to the contractors and to politically strategic geographic regions of the country (especially Florida and Texas).

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Saturday, September 17, 2005

Should we continue the space program?

I don't know, but here's an interesting discussion.

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Tuesday, June 07, 2005

NASA plans for cosmology

A June 2 news story from New Scientist describes recommendations from a NASA advisory panel.

Four key research areas were listed for the next 3 decades.

The first key area is searching for evidence of cosmic inflation. From now to 2015 this is to be done by analysis of the cosmic microwave background. From 2015 to 2025 gravitational wave astronomy will be employed. Around 2025 the Big Bang Observer will continue by providing the next generation of gravitational wave astronomy.

The second issue is gaining a better understanding of black holes and related relativistic effects. From now to 2015 the Gamma-Ray Large Area Telescope will study the relativistic jets associated with black holes. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will search for evidence of black hole growth and mergers in the early universe. Around 2015 gravitational wave astronomy will be used along with a new X-ray telescope (Constellation-X) to study black hole properties. After 2025 there will be an attempt to image matter falling into black holes.

The third issue is the investigation of dark energy. Up to 2025 this is to be done by studies of the distribution of visible and dark matter. After 2025 the Big Bang Observer will enable measurements of distances to binary systems consisting of neutron stars and black holes in order to better determine the geometry of the universe.

The fourth issue is the study of how galaxies, stars, and stellar planetary systems evolve. From now to 2015 the HST and the JWST will study stars in the earliest galaxies. From 2015 to 2025 Constellation-X will study the dispersal of heavy elements. After 2025 later instruments will study the evolution of nuclei, atoms and molecules.

All this depends, of course, on appropriate priorities being given to these objectives, so that solid science is not crowded out of the budget by ostentatious displays of national vanity in the form of manned junkets to the moon and Mars.

More information on NASA roadmaps is here and here.

Related documents include a report on Science in NASA's Vision for Space Exploration and the details about proposed cosmology research in Universe Exploration: From the Big Bang to Life.

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